Key Takeaways
- The number of job openings remained virtually unchanged in January at 8.9 million.
- The labor market seems to show no signs of cracking under the pressure of high interest rates set by the Federal Reserve.
- Additional employment data later this week will help give a fuller picture of high interest rates' impact on jobs.
There were 8.9 million job openings in January, virtually the same as in December, meaning there were 1.4 job openings for every unemployed worker, also unchanged from the previous month. Although fewer than the 2-1 ratio workers enjoyed in March 2022, it was still more than the 1.2 jobs that every unemployed worker had to choose from before the pandemic hit.
Employers laid off 1.6 million workers, little changed from December, and near a historic low.
"For now, the JOLTS data signal that the jobs market is slowly settling down, consistent with wage, and thus inflation, pressures cooling without a worrisome slowdown in net job creation and overall economic activity," wrote Wells Fargo Economists Sarah House and Aubrey George. "The gradual, rather than marked, softening in the labor market will likely keep the FOMC comfortable in waiting a little while longer before beginning to cut rates."Overall, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed a job market staying resilient in January. Economists are closely watching the labor market for signs that employers are pulling back on hiring because the Federal Reserve is maintaining high interest rates to quash inflation. Those interest rates have made it costlier for businesses to borrow money to pay their workers.
"We think the JOLTS data are telling us that the labor market rebalancing is very close to complete," wrote CIBC Economics' Ali Jaffery. "It is going to be difficult for the openings-to-unemployment ratio to normalize to its pre-pandemic level until firms realize either they have to pay higher wages for workers to fill those jobs or that demographics in the US don’t support their labor demand, so the ratio is likely to rest somewhat above the 1.1 to 1.2 ratio we saw pre-pandemic."
On Friday, a bureau report on February’s job data is expected to show a slight slowdown from January.