Consumers Are Increasingly Worried About the Immediate Economic Future

After February results were adjusted lower, consumer confidence was mostly unchanged in March as inflation concerns linger.

The 104.7 reading for the March print of the Consumer Confidence Index was a tick lower than the February reading after revisions, data from the Conference Board showed. Economists projected a reading of 106.5 in March, which was slightly lower than the initial February results.

Consumer expectations for inflation were also flat in March and near a four-year low as households estimated that prices would surge 5.3% over the next 12 months.  “Consumers remained concerned with elevated price levels, which predominated write-in responses. March’s write-in responses showed an uptick in concerns about food and gas prices, but in general complaints about gas prices have been trending downward,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. The Present Situation Index moved up to 151.0, showing consumers had an improving assessment of current business conditions, while the Expectation Index moved lower. The survey showed consumer expectations over the next six months slipped to their lowest levels since October 2023.

-Terry Lane

Home Prices Are Up 6% in January, Higher Than Month Prior's Jump

Home prices pushed up further in January as a limited number of homes are for sale on the market.

S&P CoreLogic's Case-Shiller Home Price Index found home prices grew 6.0% year-over-year, up from 5.6% in the prior month. West Coast home prices grew the most, with San Diego and Los Angeles leading. San Diego prices soared 11.2% year-over-year and Los Angeles saw 8.6%.

High interest rates on mortgages have discouraged millions of homeowners from selling their current homes, creating an imbalance between supply and demand. That has pushed prices up, and economists have said some buyers and sellers are waiting for mortgage rates to fall before getting into the market.

Durable Goods Orders Higher in February on Jump in Transportation

Orders for durable goods bounced back in February after declining the past two months, jumping higher on sales of aircraft and other transportation equipment that’s part of the measurement of infrequently-purchased items.

The Census Bureau reported that new durable goods were up 1.4% in February, better than the 1.0% forecasted by economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. Following a slight dip in December, durable goods orders dropped significantly in January as transportation orders fell. 

"The rebound in the interest-rate sensitive manufacturing sector is likely to remain uneven until the Fed starts easing policy this summer," wrote BMO's Senior Economist Jay Hawkins.

An increase in transportation equipment spending by 3.3%, which is mainly made up of aircraft sales, also reverses two months of declines and comes as production issues at Boeing prompted its CEO Dave Calhoun to announce his resignation. 

When excluding volatile transportation sales, new durable goods orders were higher by 0.5%.

-Terry Lane

This blog post has been updated with analysis from economists.